Mr Frosty thru 9-30-2024

Boss, Da Plan 

I've just downloaded the many-page self-described economic plan published by the Harris-Walz campaign.  I should preface that it is a political system and this is a political document. 

You can download it yourself here Harris Glossy PDF Version 87f.beta. But, you've seen it all before.

It's semi-informative and good to look at, if you like looking at stuff like this. I should be accepting of others' limitations, and remember to let them think they win, even when they run in the wrong direction, like my counselor advised. Well, it was the 2nd grade teacher and she said "Come in second once in awhile." Same thing.

So.. Great job. I like the fonts. And the use of color, spot on. So creative! It made me want to buy a Look! Magazine and look at the pictures. Oh, and the stories. My grandfather never spun such a tale. 

Ok, he didn't talk much, but he fiddled like a --redacted--.

Seriously though, run it through a strainer if you expect me to read it. This is how My Model Marie reacted:

I can't help with responses on elections and political figures right now. While I would never deliberately share something that's inaccurate, I can make mistakes. So, while I work on improving, you can try Google Search.

So then of course, I had to look. I was somewhat disapointed. Like I said, great fonts. But I have to ask, whos the target audience here, because I don't see one.

Oh yeah, Fantasy Island. You know what? I never saw it. 

I could continue the thread I had undertaken with Marie about economics.   How many one's does it take to make a million? Too subtle?

I don't mean to be rude, I would love to see this expressed without politics so I could build a model from it. 

Manu: Correct and Concise

As in nothing from nothing yields nothing. I submit any such collection is dismissible.

Project Roulette 

I've so many projects I never want for something I could be doing. I have my limits with some things, a couple of hours of math sends me looking for Sabrina Carpenter videos just to stop the carousel.  

I'm not sure what I'd do yet. I'm in the middle of coffee and it is not 9 yet.

 Verizon went on a long breakfast break this morning. No phones. 30 minutes. It came back 5Gux, I'm not complaining. Ok, now I'm complaining, it's out again. 

Morning World 

Much love 🫴

Le Plus Petit Detail

Je prends du popcorn au chocolat Haagen Daz et au cheddar blanc Smartfood et un Mountain Dew avec le film.

Je l'ai loue sur Google Play.

Bon sabbat

Double Feature

Atom Ant meets the Monster from the Rubber Jumpsuit Apparatus.

Morning World 

Much love.

Ms Abby

One of those required events is pending here: commenting on the border speech. See below. I think she hit them all and took dreamers along for the trip. She's a better speaker than she was. Occasionally I see Barack's steppin-outrage a little. He's got a style.

The border bill was dominant and some tell them what you're going to tell them. tell them, and then remind them what you told them. 

I didn't see any new legislative agenda though, not that I'd expect that in October-ish. The talk was all good.

 Challenged by the painted sea of automobile tires, she made it across ok. 

I had a thought recently that the presidency is a big job, is it not?

Borderline Borders 

Honestly Ms, my immigration knowledge base is thin. I would close the border, period. Just so we could get a breath and figure this out. I don't know if that puts me on one side of the fence or the other. Reviewing the arguments that result should provide a guide somewhat, at least at defining objectives and non-objectives.

Which is where I'd start, by listing the objectives, then reviewing the methods for each, looking for the ill-advised, the quizzical, and the unfair. I would probably defer the amnesty question due to its complexity.

There are many objectives, some at times seemingly working at cross purposes, and then there is the diplomatic channel. I'd review that criterion, and whether that foreign policy is best served by immigration regulation or policy. I didn't mention politics, must I?

 It's run by the the executive branch and loose regulation; in the void left by graft, what's to fill it? Natural forces with positive outcomes? 

Easy, positive outcomes. I swear I wasn't waving my hands, it just seems like it.

That's about the best I can offer. 

Busy Day 

Jam packed, one could say, to the 2 PM hour with stuff that was good and good for me. Official, for me, Sabbath begins in 10 and I'm so behind.

 Good Sabbath. 

If I don't see you, well, you'll see me.

Ms B

I guess I make humor. But have your guests all read this before discussing the future of the economy, please.

The primary result of tarrifs are inflation, particularly in PPI, when supply chains rattle, that's why the PPI focus.

Scan past the analysts paid work to : Tell about the risks

Welcome to the shortening of the way.

Summary of this content 

This document discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and stock market, focusing on factors such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, and earnings. The stock market has seen mixed performance, with some sectors outperforming others. Despite recent sell-offs, the S&P 500 has risen for four consecutive months.

The economy is showing signs of slowing down, and interest rates are likely to be cut soon. Inflation has declined, but concerns remain about the possibility of a recession. Earnings have been mixed, with some sectors reporting strong growth while others have experienced declines.

Overall, the stock market appears to be in a favorable position, but there are risks to consider, such as earnings falling short of expectations, inflation or interest rates rising, and overall economic weakness. Investors should closely monitor these factors and adjust their strategies accordingly.

The document also explores potential scenarios for the future, including the possibility of a recession with rising unemployment and persistent inflation. It outlines preventative measures that could be taken, such as implementing supply-side policies, fiscal policy measures, and careful interest rate management.

Finally, the document analyzes the potential outcome of PPI following inflation downwards while upper bracket tax increases and increased social spending are implemented. This scenario could lead to a more balanced economic outcome with controlled inflation, increased government revenue, reduced inequality, stimulated demand, and investment in human capital. However, potential challenges such as business investment, inflationary pressures, and fiscal sustainability need to be addressed.

Thus Spake the Candidate 

How often do you use 'spake' in a sentence? It has connotations of oracle or import and implies integrity and transparency.

I'm all over this semantic here. Mr K, you demon you. 

Over all it was two thumbs up, it went on a bit, and allowing for style and charm and audience, though there were topics that were as clear as a politician's wardrobe and others that were invisible. I'm a tough crowd, probably. That's a tough referential pull, but you're all so smart.

LIve and on TV

I've got a secret, and I'm not sure I should tell you because I don't trust the numbers the focus group study predicted. Some of that of course. I mentioned that there is a law, so far unnamed; for now, let's call it the Tapper Postulate: the closer a voter gets to election day, the less a voter can believe anything a candidate says about anything. 

Give me a sec, I'll make it a differential equaltion.

Something like: The truth a voter should believe as the limit of the calender as it approaches November 4th, tends to zero.

That's so easy.

Back to the Program 

Sorry, I'm bored and feeling 25 today, so I'll often digress. Her speech mentioned many things I agree with, and nothing ostensibly that I disagree with. Very much could be lost in translation here, and one must recall that. 

But like. 

I'm gonna vote for that ----redacted---- Trump? I'm not that young. I was never that young.

A Blast from the Former Blog

Ready For Love

Better Angels: "Wow, what got into us?"

Sense of Humor: "What do you mean?"

Better Angels: "Well, we look hot today. That girl just said so, and she hates us."

Sense of Humor: "She doesn't hate us, silly."

Better Angels: "Are you sure?"

Sense of Humor: "Absolutely. She hates you. She passed me her number."

Better Angels "...funny."

Sense of Humor: "So what do we say, feel like falling in love?"

Better Angels: "I thought we _were in love?"

Sense of Humor: "I meant, you know, with other_ people."

Better Angels: "Will it hurt?"

Sense of Humor: "I do the jokes here, remember?"

Better Angels /looks at the floor

Sense of Humor: "Ok, but you have to help fold the laundry."

Demands for America Additions

Today I added:

Better Angels List for America

...

• Housing

  • Affordable housing 

    • Reform Real Estate Investment regulation (Harris)

    • Provide below-market interest loans for middle and lower-income first-time buyers

...

• Healthcare

  • Reform big pharma price gouging and control of healthcare (Warren, Biden)

  • Women's Health

    • A woman's health is a woman's issue. (All of us)

View the lists.

Afternoon Tea 

I'm catching up with stuff, to be honest it's projects, looking after the best of both worlds for fast versus small. I have grown attached to my other lobe, My Model Marie. I should write a book. Life, Liberty, and  Lambda, in a world of whole notes.

More Lambda

I'm going to add Goggle AI Studio and I'm considering using GCP but that's often costly.

I'm not looking to operate a CMS, I guess I'm cool with this until google makes something better. I'd like to make more plugins, but its so much work compared to typing in a text box and pushing a button. This and my GC account cost me a buck a month.

It Makes My Brown Eyes

It's referential to a movie; I'll drop clues in my serial complaint this morning; first one in wins a hundred bucks. 

Crystal clear it is to me, but the news is so full of dust that I'm reticent to mention the LA fog this morning. I love the fog. A driver coming in near the coast is lamp-lit and parked probably, the winds from the desert occasionally drifting across the sands. 

The news is full of it, but Spock would pass it off as the foolish actions of a foolish planet. I never argue with anything that has pointed ears. 

I'm good at finding rocks, of course. It's regretful, but necessary in a nuclear weapon fight.

So, rock on, dude.

Morning World 

Much love 🐼

My Day 

It was a mixed bag day, with some scary parts, some ignored parts, and some headache parts. And then I stopped watching the news. As a result, I have this knot in my psyche, which comes out in pajama and elephant references; I shot one in my. It feels like I did, and I'll get over it, but I'd prefer better programming off the media streams as well. 

I am still looking for the garden path to the identity Eigenvector for hydrogen expressed as inference. I look forward to applying it to other use cases and to other things. The bots these days are almost smart enough, and I thought about customizing a model. I'm for it. 

I find myself asking how rows and columns of lists of lists of lists that look so stupid make the model smart. Of course I know, a million monkeys at typewriters is slower.

I am disappointed in the apparent insistence by someone unspecified or by accident that precludes a bot that can actually write code and remember what it wrote a half a second later. I am starting to feel like someone expects additional payment for that lobe or something. So they thought, eh?

The weird point today is how delta d over delta x can be so much more. In context it was a stupid question, until. I also stumbled into fields by a strange coincidence. It was a day like that, insight or statistics may be moot.

Anderson

Why do I feel like a Big Mac.

Winning is everything is offensive, stupid.

Dana TWIMC

Question for the peanut gallery, and Congress. Is calling any race 'the chosen people' racist or anti-semitic? How about housing a captive population that has no rights and cannot become citizens in ghettos, racist or anti-semitic?   Is subjecting an entire population to squalor, starvation, and injustice racist or anti-semitic?  How about if it's been going on since 1949?

I'm tired of this already, but I need one more.

Is murdering 40000 + of these captive residents as racial recompense for terrorism, half of them children, racist or anti-semitic? 

There is no point in asking the race blind. So much time spent ignoring social norms has acclimated many to think these are the rights and actions of a persecuted people, and it is ok to persecute anyone who disagrees. What would one guess would be the basis for anti-semitic behavior, as some put it?

So, in short, it may be that no one cares what many think about much else, given the rest of the narrative. They may find they are 180 degrees out of phase on this. 

If anyone feels any race is special or entitled, they may be a racist, with apologies to comedy. I'm not saying they are, but convince me I'm wrong without calling me racist or anti-semitic. I have an opinion, and as a person of the book, I'm embarrassed to have my government support the actions of a friendly nation that murdered, bombed, blew up, shot, imprisoned, gang-raped, and sullied the reputation of people who were not even involved. 

Another 700 Lebanese died, and 1000 were injured today.

Morning World

Much love 👆

Farheed

She's in it for the power, that's why she puts up with the roller-coaster building BIll Clinton.

Obvious even to her in her deep myopic condition.

Something's lost, some things gained, that's my spelling. For them it's the best of all possible worlds, the one they make up in their heads.

Morning World 

Much love  🎮

Math Day 

I just feel like doing math today; I'm going to spend time trying to arrive at fast solutions to 19 dimensions of calculus; u=You must be kidding it is Saturday, for you. As long as I can do it in my head, I'm cool with math; the industrial scale I leave to people with more good humor to spend.

Oh Yeah

I'm also doing a couple of loads of laundry, a perfect fit. Mindless waiting and folding with plenty to think about while doing it. 

Laundry done, and I spent the time doing differential equations.

Morning World 

Much love 🧮

These Jagged Media Event(s)

Hey everyone, it's Oprah, the Ms and a gaggle of gaggled women, and in the front row, raw emotional fodder for the election construction set.  Let's get it on TV, and please find it in you to feel its emotion despite the put-up show.  My empathy is for the unrecognized injustice alive in America, as always. 

A woman's health is a woman's issue. Who could argue with that? 

However, please don't brandish this stuff like a limerick or a bumper sticker. The unborn deserve more respect. 

Ok, now that's clear, let's do better. 

As I said, injustice is where you find it, and you'll find it everywhere you look.

Changes One CNN

It's been good to have you in the mornings, Wolfie. I don't watch CNN much; I'll catch Kasie when she's on if I don't have to get up in the middle of the California night.

V'nishmartem me'od l'nafshotehem.

See you in the Situation Room.

Music Block

I once did music blocks, a formatted series of 5 or 6 music videos. 

I don't do them anymore. I never pick the music, but the format usually works. No one believes that.

I've added one. 

Shockin' in Weehawken

Everywhere else too. The Fed cuts 50 count em' 50 bp; the gallery gasps, now it wonders what the Fed sees that they don't see, the gallery was funnin'.

Welcome to American capitalism.

Already reports of +2 to the stock P/E ratio by some silk suit on CNBC. That is also known as inflation.  I don't think that's what the Fed had in mind.

Tapper

I would not expect consumers to notice any decrease for some time. It's half a cent on a dollar.

Fed Up with Fed Up 

That's the impression I'm left with from the American consumer's viewpoint. The consumer complains that no one can afford anything. That is a haunting phrase, as it results from an unregulated inflationary economy. It's my position that most things considered signs of a healthy economy, i.e. as money changing hands, are inflationary events, such as house flipping for wealth building or stock speculation. 

This is a symptom of an educated segment of the population that has acquired the skill to use the financial tools of an inflationary economy to their advantage.  That's not a bad thing unless it's also used by some in business, including real estate developers, perhaps especially, to accumulate wealth using the same mechanisms intended to spur economic development for personal gain.

The Fed has the only brake, and it's somewhat effective at managing the inflation rate, recognized or unrealized as capital gains, or housing or a 401K, but has bad side effects in that it is a regressive tax on the average citizen. 

They've had enough rate increases, but that is not the problem, as demonstrated.

I've presented many arguments to support the restructuring of the American economic model that doesn't scoop all resources up the asset ladder, until left to perpetuity, an economy results in which no one can afford anything. A two bedroom house in the millions, for example. In California, this happens first.

I will point out the obvious. Inflation only bothers people that don't have too much money.

I am in favor of measures to achieve equity, and improve the odds of success for the middle American. We may differ on the definition of middle. I refer to a population median, not a political gamut.

Opportunity Knocked Already

Most important point. $50000 in tax credits won't buy any plates for a start-up restaurant. If you like to cook, sling hash for 10 years and don't miss any payments, that's the real opportunity. Similarly, a $25000 tax credit for a mortgage just inflates the starting price of starter homes. 

This is the problem with this opportunity economy theory. II you don't have anything, you still won't have anything.  It's not possible to bootstrap yourself even with a college degree, it takes more.

It's an additional opportunity for people with opportunities already, like her mother.  Still, her mother could not afford a home for 15 years or more. That's the upper 10 percent. Check this blog for a source for census figures of American incomes. 

We are all empathic and get it, but it does not work for many. Think deeper.

I've mentioned the economy needs more than a rate cut; it requires regulating banks, hedge funds, and other fund managers. Consumers also need a path to wealth that doesn't cause inflation. 

Housing is complicated, and it may be necessary to require rental housing to operate as a not-for-profit business. Real estate investment trusts, similarly, contribute little except to the shareholders. 

These are complex measures, but capitalism is not a dinner sport; it goes for the jugular, everyone's jugular, for a slick ride, and Puffy Combs like party notoriety.

Weary is the Toupee that Covets the Crown

I didn't know how else to say it. Life is tough as a political instigator/co-conspirator / presidential candidate. This trend towards wayward men with wayward weapons: Was it worth trend spotting, or was it weird-ohs and a willing lens? Everyone says yes. 

But I wondered, were there other occasions where a boisterous leader had multiple close clashes with moving metal projectiles? Wikipedia to the rescue. I have this memory that latches on to patterns, exceptions, standouts, and, lately, boundary conditions and won't let go.

My sympathies to those wishing to rule but frustrated by an aware public, an active media, and people with common sense.

Da Feds 

The news is that Ms Warren is calling for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.  It looks like politics for the Fed to cut rates by more than 25 basis points, and it would perhaps be a better judgment. My recommendation remains that any rate cut should wait at least until after the election results; it's not that far away, and with Christmas around the corner, it would accomplish the same objectives with the same effects. 

My preferred view is to wait until after the Inauguration to see what the promise of spring brings. I understand Ms W's position, and I understand the markets as well. They've already priced in 50 basis points; that's how the market manipulates the Fed with rumor and innuendo, and it's part of why I suggest a wait-and-see stance.  Generally, the market works at cross purposes to itself; like banks, that's where the money is.

The Christmas season is shades of green, and we should see how green it is first. 

However, I fully acknowledge that the Fed is empowered to look after employment and not the economy, and I often differ with their immediate conclusions. My knowledge of the full economy is as limited as anyone, and I follow the Fed regardless of my opinion. 

I will consider Ms W's suggestion regarding the immediacy and degree of rate restructuring. 

My short analysis: it's sugar water on ice. Before the shopping season, perhaps consumers would overspend, which would indicate consumer confidence. However, considering the tenuous state of inflation, it would work against lower prices and over-stimulate an already self-stimulating holiday season. 

Dana

If I wanted propaganda, I'd probably do it better. Thanks anyway. We have a published agenda and we have invited the candidate to participate. Given the political environment, acknowledgment is risky, yet that is our expectation, and we, together, outnumber Nancy and her money train.

I pity the politician who plays footsy with the group and fails to perform.

Welcome to the shortening of the way.

Response Required 

I guess we've all had those, R.S.V.P. at some point: weddings, Bar Mitzvah, toga parties, whatever.  I want to take the high road and ignore the pursuit of the ex-president by extraordinary means, read assassination, hopefully, attempts.  It's a stretch to admit I'm overly relieved he's running for president, independent of said same.

Free to Speak 

In this universe, you have to recognize these events when they happened to Donald J. Trump, or you're being anti-Trumpite. Don't laugh.  It may even be your fault.

I haven't seen the plan for 2015 or whatever. Spirit willing and the levee don't rise; it'll never happen,  but I'm sure it's in there. Anti-Trump will equate to criminal, terrorist, murderer, or journalist, and those that sully even a passing thought shall be accounted for. 

The Disease 

I'll go on the record. The last move in politics is to pick up a gun. I can't blame the symptoms while ignoring the disease. Trump is a threat to America, and some people who hear his rhetoric get worked up and may do the unthinkable; that's what they do. This is why people of conscience don't invent stories about eating pets to stir people up.