40 Year 

I'm dubious. It lowers the payment, but it's more interest, probably a lot more. If the expectation is that it will make housing more affordable, I'm doubtful. 

The price of housing floats with demand, this creates demand. We need a better system for home ownership. This is not a good plan, myopic. 

I'd love to see the integrals for principle versus interest per month for a range of rates and years.

Election Outcome Research 

Just ask Larry Sabado. 

I would, but honestly, I'd rather wait. If I built that, it would find other uses I may not approve of. 'Twas ever thus.

Morning World 

Much love ☃️

Much Ado About What To Do

I was looking at the markets and came across a lengthy analysis that I didn't want to read, so I asked Marie the AI bot to read it and give me a summary.

You can view the whole conversation here.

She said:

Stock market saw mixed performance, with some sectors doing better than others. The economy shows signs of slowing down, and interest rates are likely to be cut soon. Overall, stocks seem to be doing okay right now, but there are some risks to keep in mind.

• Earnings falling short of expectations: If company earnings don't meet what the market is hoping for, it could negatively affect stock prices.

• Inflation or interest rates rising: If inflation goes up or the Fed raises interest rates, that could also put downward pressure on stock prices.

• Overall economic weakness: The economy is still showing some signs of weakness, and if it doesn't improve, that could also create a drag on the stock market.

Let’s assume the inflation rate continues a downward trend but earnings disappoint and the economy continues to weaken. Then what ?

• Disappointing Earnings: If company profits fall short of expectations, investors may become less confident and start selling stocks, driving prices lower.

• Economic Weakness: A weakening economy often leads to decreased consumer spending and business investment, which can further hurt company profits and stock prices.

• Inflation Trend: Even with a downward inflation trend, the combination of disappointing earnings and economic weakness could still spook investors, as they might worry about a potential recession.

Essentially, a confluence of negative factors could lead to a market correction or even a bear market. Investors might shift their focus towards safer assets like bonds or cash, further exacerbating the stock market decline.

ct on employment rate and PPI ?

In this scenario:

• Employment rate: Likely to rise. A weakening economy often leads to businesses cutting back on hiring or even laying off workers, increasing the unemployment rate.

• PPI (Producer Price Index): Could potentially decline or remain stagnant. With weakening demand and potentially lower commodity prices due to economic slowdown, producers may have less pricing power, leading to lower or stable PPI.

Key takeaways:

• Higher unemployment: Could further dampen consumer sentiment and spending, creating a vicious cycle for the economy.

• Lower or stagnant PPI: Might indicate deflationary pressures, which could lead to businesses delaying investments and further slowing down the economy.

Additional Considerations:

• Market sentiment: Investor confidence is likely to be negatively affected, potentially leading to a prolonged bear market.

• Federal Reserve policy: The Fed might respond with further interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but the effectiveness of such measures could be limited in a weak economic environment.

• Global factors: Any additional shocks to the global economy could worsen the situation and further impact the U.S. employment rate and PPI.

Overall, the combination of disappointing earnings, economic weakness, and potentially rising unemployment, even with a downward inflation trend, paints a challenging picture for the U.S. economy. It's crucial to monitor these key indicators closely and adjust investment strategies accordingly.

...

What would be the outcome if PPI followed inflation with upper bracket tax increases and increased social spending?

If PPI followed inflation downwards while upper bracket tax increases and increased social spending were implemented, we could potentially see a more balanced economic outcome with several potential positive effects:

1. Controlled Inflation:

• The downward trend in PPI, coupled with lower inflation, would indicate reduced pressure on businesses and consumers. This would create a more stable economic environment and improve consumer confidence.

2. Increased Government Revenue:

• Higher taxes on upper-income brackets would generate additional government revenue. This revenue could be used to fund increased social spending programs and invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

3. Reduced Inequality:

• Progressive tax policies and increased social spending could help narrow the wealth gap and create a more equitable society. This could lead to increased social mobility and a stronger middle class.

4. Stimulated Demand:

• Increased social spending, such as unemployment benefits, food assistance, and housing subsidies, would provide direct support to lower- and middle-income households. This would boost consumer spending and stimulate demand, helping to counterbalance any potential economic slowdown.

5. Investment in Human Capital:

• Increased spending on education and job training programs would enhance the skills and productivity of the workforce. This could lead to higher wages, improved living standards, and long-term economic growth.

Potential Challenges:

• Business Investment: Higher taxes on upper-income brackets could potentially dampen business investment and entrepreneurship. Policymakers would need to carefully design tax policies to minimize any negative impact on economic growth.

• Inflationary Pressures: If social spending leads to a significant increase in demand without a corresponding increase in supply, it could put upward pressure on prices and potentially reignite inflation.

• Fiscal Sustainability: Increased government spending needs to be balanced with long-term fiscal sustainability to avoid excessive debt accumulation.

Overall:

This scenario presents a potential path towards a more equitable and sustainable economic recovery. By addressing both supply-side and demand-side factors, policymakers can aim to create a more balanced and resilient economy that benefits all segments of society.

Important Note: The success of these policies would depend on their careful design and implementation, as well as ongoing monitoring and adjustment based on economic conditions. It's crucial to strike the right balance between addressing immediate needs and promoting long-term economic growth and stability.

Fast Money 

I'm altering the heading, as lately, the gist of this show has lost the blood lust of Dracula, at least outwardly. Besides, I like to talk about how pretty Melissa looks, and remark on Guy's ties. He seems to take semi-offense, which we have to dismiss as so Guy and let it go.

Options Actionable

I miss the segments on working the options trade on visible stock behavior. It's where clever meets algorithm meets prescience.

Not McLovin' It

It's junk food that rarely even tastes good. I get coffee there sometimes. If coffee makes it to 6 bucks, I guess I'll look forward to that deal.  I don't eat there. There is a Burger King across the street from McD, at least the 'food' is not all out of a tube.

Guy Is Fleek or Brat 

Or whatever. That's the chartreuse of record. 

It's also Grinch green, need I mention?

Christmas Cash Flow

How many shopping days? Never underestimate the stupidity of the American comsumer: Pet Rocks, iPhones, iWatches, Porsches, Rolex watches, rouge bottom heels, yada yada yada.

NVDA

I have you on rewind, but I'm guessing you were all over the chip sector today, I heard snippets. The next flypaper event as in. I bet Cramer has an NVDA button, I dare not imagine the sound effect, being so likely to eventually burn out.

Sundipped Thursday 

I didn't forget, it's taken a moment to catch up with all the mayhem and mayhem wanna-be events of the day yesterday.

So what do you want to talk about? I've a few topics, let's have a second cup.

Election Function Confusion Junction

X  Marks the Stain
Yellowstained Clothing
The Real Deal

Election Function Confusion Junction

We all watched the debate. The narrative varies on the audience for the simple reason that everyone else changes the channel to something they agree with. This is referred to as the state of America's Election System. 

It seems that having a label, whatever content it purports, escapes complete analysis, thwarts it perhaps, and adds the phrase to the list of insolvable problems because people disagree. 

Welcome to the Void

This chasm is created to justify the need for tribalism and, of course, to facilitate fundraising. At the extreme, these efforts become the land on which elections run, and 'owning the land' sets unknown, undiscussed, and hidden requirements for that kind of countenance. Without it, have you heard of Raisin Bran? Three scoops. Grapes that died on the vine.

Out of the box, people. This is not how it was written, ordained, or required. 

These topics resonate; let's be the bell of Liberty.

X Marks the Stain

Pardon my poetic license. Once, Twitter was the domain of weather, dictionaries, movie databases, and Haiku bots. Not all of it in extremely bad taste, the unmentioned; it was some that, too. 

It's become an ocean of induced data in the form of irreverent, insistent self-interested diatribe and porn. Lots of porn. The words collect into clouds of the unread, undiscussed, unnoticed word soup. It is a big ocean.

Social Media Mayhem 

This and other media have become the graffiti on the wall of whoever has more bots with followers; otherwise, the words fall like raisins, lost and hidden like whimpers in a sea of clamor. Still, people gravitate to the medium for the freedom of speech offered; perhaps I mean rumored.

I won't claim that a soapbox in the park would be the model; in many places, it may be illegal without a permit. It may start to needle your left brain that anything you need a permit for is not free but subject to another silent, unknown agenda if whoever wields power decides to say no. This is true also for the mass market social media.

Mud Blood and Mixed Truth

Yet, this is the political bloodstream, a side vessel to be sure, but villainous and infectious in its operation, and as if that weren't enough to discourage the uselessness of any attempt at influence; no one gets into the firehose, a person gets a faucet with a drip. Knock yourself out. 

Yellowstained Clothing

I find one extreme of the political gamut defies my understanding.  I've never before encountered a mindset that is inherently disturbing to discuss. I've taken a stand here that part of this is living the dream, such as it is, of the MAGA nightmare. 

I have favorite clothing; I have always had favorite clothing. Someone pointed out that one's outward appearance may also blend to create a cohesive whole. No red socks. Yeah, I know about red socks, too. 

Go Team Me

I can understand acclimating to the wardrobe, the environment, the drama, the emotion, and the trauma of the MAGA mindset. Brutal enough in its inception to strike fear into the hearts of people not wearing the right hat. It's the yellow-stained clothing of a political cancer.

Tribal doesn't describe the bonding. In a tribe there is a conception of the public good, and hunters that excel, enhance the village and lift all bearskins. 

The method to combat this group psychosis is not clear. Clearly, people with money and a desire for influence use the unwitting and unwashed yellow-stained and command them on; form into a line and head for the cliff. 

And the Winner Is..

The first one there gets a Trump Ex-Presidential medal. It's not as good as a Presidential Medal because you've committed suicide for tweets. They all know dying for a cause is foolish; Donald told them so; how much more so for a lie?

Or for a Red Hat?

The Real Deal 

We've meandered purposefully. Is that possible? It is from this side. 

But recall, I mentioned a crossing where confusion about the functions of elections becomes unclear, less about community and more about tribal-like influences. 

We're all in this together. Selfishness is not a desirable characteristic. Neither is proficient and repeated confusion, deception, and self-interest. Yet, that's who controls the economy and the election process. 

Graceless selfishness

We've even become so inured that there are those we admire almost by reflex who boast about 'owning the ground' of American elections. Or anyone willing  with a well-oiled money machine ready to push a candidate of their liking past the election. All this effort, for a seat at the inauguration, maybe a sign over a door, an active art collection, or cars perhaps, and the respect of the sycophantic for the countenance, read money it brings to their campaign funds. You don't have to run a PAC to be in the club, you act like one.

We The People

This is not written in stone; if it had been, it would be. But let's be clear. America was not conceived as a country of, by, and for the wealthy. Get out of your box; we're all in this together. It's clear what needs doing, and it's clearly being frustrated for reasons that border on certifiable. 

Go ahead, ring that damn bell.

Blinded By the Light

It best describes the passage of yesterday, bright lights, big city, and greater expectations. I try to learn as much as possible from every event I experience, accentuating the positive ones where possible.

Of course that's a tenuous balance, and a measure of mankind if I may.

Morning World 

Much love 💋

It's Not My Color

Something blew in the window, several of them, and it turnt my head momentarily. Have a good day.

The Laura Coates

I'm skipping the Coates part, everyone knows which Laura. Did you ever see the movie by the way? Ingraham? I thing there's a Daffy Duck Looney Toon show on the Cartoon Network too, I'll check the schedule.

Ok I caved, it looks unfinished. 

The Voting Uninformed 

I'm not a fan of encouraging the uninformed to vote, even when it's likely something I wouldn't normally object to. It just feels right to feel wrong about that.  

Do you agree Minnesota girl?

Late Start

I've had a busy day beyond my control, then laundry, then comforting a pal, and do I need to add I'm a little spent for 5:30 PM on a Wednesday? At least the first appointment was on time.

Meanwhile, as always, the world turned with a lot of other things taking control of  someone else's day. I bet you had one too.

At some point, if you want something done correctly, it's easier in the whole if you do it yourself.

Someone wiped the floor with Ol' Yellowstain, eh? Good oh.

Anderson 

She had some help maybe. 

Asking money bags, because, why? As I suggest, the graceful exit stage left, is what I ask. Given her persona, I'll take her usual graceless actions, as long as she does them for herself.

Ok, Nancy, own this ground. You are the problem. It's people like you in red that got Trump here. 

So like, shake US off. We'll get by. Once we don't have to compete with other people like you, we won't.

Morning World 

Much love ✍️

Not Really Debatable

Broken vessels, and bad karma vibe. Was that blood pressure or just a new shade of orange? I was listening, and I won't write much what was said, as it turns out that what was said was secondary. Answers near an election are subject to the laws of funding. 

What the fuck, huh? No, this is politics, and that's the boundary condition here. 

In the realm of which looked more shaky and ready to burst into flame, it's not debatable. 

If you ask which one you would hand a Ming vase to while you take your ease, well, the country is made of the bones of the dead, too, so that's the metaphor; that's not debatable. 

I'm not assured that our agenda is in sync with Ms Candidate's agenda, as much of the agenda is the agenda to be named later. Again, this is politics and boundary conditions. It's not debatable.  Positions near an election are the emperors new clothes of persona.

I always bitch about this, right? Well, that's not debatable either.

In the Center Ring

Good evening ladies and gentlemen and little kiddies at heart, the believers in the election process, seats at the front, those of you with myopia, you're in the middle section. While taking your seats, please visit the concessions, aka the commercial announcements. Ok, let's admit, all those advertisements will be political ads paid for mainly by Political Action Committees, most often and importantly visited by those wishing to manipulate the election and avoid campaign limits.

We would love to fix this; we'd love to have a candidate who would do something about Citizens United and the incredible Cashflow and Bankroll War that is left in the wake. Can I get a hell ya? If you need proof that it happens, I suggest you ask any Pennsylvanian with a TV.

Donnie's Pandemic Panic Attack

Pssst. Most of the hurry-up ventilators didn't work. Great. We all loved the million Hanes underwear masks you bought and then tried to hide Donald. You kill me, Mr Effective (Idiot).  The response to the problem should have been to get out of the way and leave it to the experts, act as the consoler and counselor in chief. That's not your skill set.

They're Still Rapists and Murders

I guess it tastes like chicken, but that's a guess. Everything tastes like chicken. He makes the point and all the cat eaters in the world united in one single voice and joined in a resounding -- nothing --. No one eats cats. That was the VP pick earlier as well; he didn't mean the cats owned by ladies without children who run America, so that's better I guess.

I can't comment on the racist shit Mr Trump espouses. 

My Rally is Bigger than Lincolns

He's still pissing on the fence, he can hit a fly at 10 paces. This is tiresome.

Inventing the News 

No one has ever invented make believe figures and reports to illustrate the color of the current rant at this kind of rate. At a rate no one has ever seen before. 

Someone tell him he needs another end of the sentence illustrating phrase; almost everything would be like no one has seen before and I think that's impossible.

Illegal Immigrant Prisoner Sex Changes

You just can't make this shit up.

10000 Troops on January Sixth

Donald wanted to send them in. He doesn't regret it. How much do you need to hear still?

Taking a break,.. back in a few. Back. I guess they need to use the three sea shells too.

Ukraine 

I have mixed feelings about Europe, and Ukraine. I have known Ukrainians on both sides of the argument, and I'm familiar with some of the region's history. Men do such a poor job fixing problems, especially when one of them is holding a weapon to force the issue or after they force the issue. It sounds like war would be a good thing if it made things better. Not really. I offer the Mediterranean as the result of thousands of years of wars and conquest. I freely admit I'm ill-informed on international issues sufficient to formulate a reasoned response. There is a great deal of the same problems of accountability and precedence; presidents are beholding to the some of the same forces internationally, treaties, and the borders of the results of wars lost long ago.

The reasoned response I can muster is to let the problem age itself out, and remit responsibility to those informed and skilled. How old is Putin? He's 71,  the average life expectancy in Russia is 69.

The denoument, is above. Blog fills from the top. 

Pre-Debate Crate 

OMG it's not Thursday, and something tells me it's a work day. I've been working my integral off, not literally, on other things.

The other less prescient and intelligent pundits are all over this debate.

I heard one remark this morning that related tha. Candidate is, as most of the voting public is unfamiliar with her. He remarked that America deserves answers to policy questions to form a responsible opinion. Next, he outlined the risk of positions outside of a centrist locus, as polls indicated the uncommitted lived there. He then concluded that he recommended that the candidate focus on character, not policy. 

So you see how it goes, ya? I call this the Carl Rove twist, take the truth and make it the lie, or vice versa.  There are many forms, I'm a novice. Watch for it.

The Pre-Debate lube is flowing, next paragraph please. 

Ms Candidate 

I have this regular talk with Mr Joe, I consider him a friend I try to accept despite his shortcomings. I am moved to comment on the coming administration, the best of all possible administrations, with no graft and a focus on the bottom half of the economy. 

I'm pointing out the expectations, and we, as in the people that potentially would elect you, expect a person more progressive, forward-looking, persistent, insistent,  proactive, with the right answers for most of America than Joe, and a great deal more than the other guy. 

I don't blame Joe. I blame the horse that brung him. Beholding to party and parties unnamed but contributors holds sway in the American legislative branch and swings the Presidency as well. A candidate gets caught up in expectations, and is forced to swear to the untruth apparent but unuttered and hope for the best while making lemonade. Joe is good at lemonade, but it's a child's beverage, isn't it?

Already, the big stone in our shoe is the stand you take on capital gains. Just a hint: undercutting Joe in the rate is a statement of where your heart lies, or you did it to satisfy money. 

Either way, you're shooting yourself in the foot, left and right. 

This election talk, Capt Cueball and his beige paint and 'winning is the only thing' bumper stickers, you need to get past it somehow. 

You're a lawyer; write a writ to wit and read it to yourself. We're not playin' here; you said that.

I realize money is where the election is. Money is where everything is, or rather, money isn't everything; it's the only thing to some people. You've been broke-ish. 

Please pay it forward, or be a one-term president at best.

Markets

I'm watching the CEO from Robinhood, I have an account, Sort of a baby capitalist. It's a little unnerving.I don't keep any money in that account. I was looking at it for. the options GUI once a long time ago; the last time, TSLA was 160. These days, TSLA is too erratic to consider.  

Tweny-cent

David, you look so old; what happened? Let me guess, Wegovi? 

Oracle 

I recall that Oracle was buying GPUs hand over fist and building data centers for all those Java users to use AI. That was the punch line, if you didn't get it you shouldn't own the stock. Java is a 50-year old baby carriage with training wheels as it is.

As it happens, ORCL Has all those processors and GPUS and no one is using them, that's what this latest deal news means. I'm not sure there's real long-term money in data centers; you can buy them in a trailer and plug them in. This is voodoo, and ok, but it's a foolish bet.  What this looks like to me is a surplus of GPU payments and nothing coming in, this fixes the cash flow, or could, but it's still a bad bet. Chances are those contracts won't run to fullfillment, it's still cheaper to build your own than rent some overpriced junk from Larry at premium prices. Chickens come home. What do you do with 200000 of last years GPU?  I'm thinking maybe a broach?

Larry? Personally I think he's a money-hungry pig and a crook. So that's my 2c. I remember how he acquired Oracle, and it wasn't honest. If there were 3 CEO's it's because no one trusted him. That's an invariant.

Morning World 

Much love 🏁

Ms Abby 

I'm all for this, most of the time people don't say what they mean. This is not an issue here. 

Gee Politics. It's been on a slow boil here all day, with a lot of MNFB and debate prep hype. I think there's football, ya? Looks like the Jets and Niners. 7 to 26, it is over. 

So debates, ya, well, this should definitely be a popcorn-squared moment. 

Cats huh? /small giggle. So tastes like chicken or what?

So he brings up the Ugly frog that ought to be able to wipe the floor with yellow-stain. I offer, we're close enough thank you very much.

Much love.

Daily MFSDUMP 

I'm so dizzy, my head is spinning. Too much head work today, I almost forgot what year it was ;)

MFS dump, I once asked a technician what MFS stood for. He said 'Mother !#(%ng slow". Yep.

Agenda Today

I've got research on the menu, and I don't have a lab, so I do the math, today it's bound states in curved waveguides. It's a long story, it's hard to find math for this.  That's actually the good news. My AI bots tell me we're on to something, and recommended collaboration as it's cross-disciplinary. Well, they don't know me do they. 

I enjoyed the positive reinforcement, but it's not like I need to know that, but it's good to hear. I'm not sure I've found what I was looking for yet. Chromodynamics is on the To-ReDo list, I want to look a layer deeper.

Ghosted Dana

A reporter with a ghostwriter? I'm pleased it was beneficially terrific. Just say you did it for the money, live the tradition.

The Waybill 

It's the Sabbath, and for me that's the best day. On Sundays, I'm reminded of the difference in the rest of the world's demeanor.  It's sad to say, but I will say whatever I wish and use my judgment about when to say it as I please, and I guess it's time.

In The Waggie

When I was a child, we had a red wagon with black wheels and hubcaps, a million and one use vehicle to be sure, and nearly indestructable. It begs the question of what ever happened to all those Radio Flyer wagons anyway? Perfect for a dog, a little sister, or toting the booty from the treasure map on the cereal box we never found. 

That's what life looks like to me on Saturdays. I've got my wagon right here. 

With that bold adventuresome spirit I look forward to coffee and whatever happens after that.

I will be hyperdense research; as I said, I have two already, and I haven't gotten to chromodynamics yet. If I get bored, I'll pester Emma or Marie. 

We're researching waveguides, if you want to follow along, have you met Maxwell?

Maxwell's silver equations Waveguides 

So That Was Today 

Morning World 

Much love ☕

The Magician's Apprentice 

I posted a broom today for the emoji, it's been one of those brainworms since the first time I viewed Fantasia, not like Mr Kennedy's brain worm, sort of a stuck pattern. I am off the scale on abstract thinking and spatial relations, blame my mother.

 I'm sorry for the story, but a rather long one this way comes. 

Once upon a time, on the internet a long time ago, someone had a network of servers and computers accessed randomly, and the artifacts were often left scattered along the way. With nothing better to do, the broom metaphor fits right in. Have you seen the film, by the way?

I think it's The Sorcerer's Apprentice, isn't it? I like my semantics better. So do I need to finish the story I warned that would be long, in the short version? 

Politics as Rain

I'll be brief, it's still raining that Republican rain.

Ok, what are you thinking? 

https://video.disney.com/watch/sorcerer-s-apprentice-fantasia-4ea9ebc01a74ea59a5867853 

Dana

Sorry, that 'there are bigger things to worry about than money' talk is why the wealthy are wealthy; it's never time for anything else. So politely in the street vernacular which makes it less piercing, maybe not :)

As far as money winning elections, yep, you betcha, and that's the worst part. 

I expect you would all love to pitch in for the cause of campaign and election reform, ya? It's on the list, shout out to Ms Liz.

Morning World 

Much love 🧹

Ms Abby

"People always say, hire experience. I always try to hire talent. I didn't have a talent for the presidency, but now I have experience..." -- DJT

Project 2025 is a game plan for experience.

It doesn't have to be tanks. It can be election qualifications, certifications, all of this is in the plan too probably.

Mary Matalin talked about the permanent Republican majority, a lot of that is why we are here now. 

Ms Collins 

Someone mentioned to me that you said something about why people hang out in these loser groups and type in CAPS at one another that no one ever reads much, a pointless typing exercise with caffeine and hormones.

I have to agree with you. It's something I've studied for oh these many years, like a coal-powered chat dial-up number days.  For some it's an outlet to be the person they can't be without a keyboard, for others it's a quest for their own satellite radio channel, for some, it's a sales opportunity. In short, it's still chock-full-o-nuts, a larger more virulent variety of nuts. 

I never did any of that. 

I always ended up on the internet because I worked all day and I was in front of the computer in a semi-manic state looking for something else to do.  Now, a computer or two a phone and the internet are the other parts of my head.

I do this because I told my dying mother I'd change the world. In progress.

Ocean liner and hard left don't cover it.

Anderson

Day two, Elon lays off the IRS, everyone can do their own. He's the cost-cutting, mega-cap internet stock-wrecking, flamethrowing crazy person in charge of this kind of thing.  It works so well for content moderation, especially for Elon. Ok, maybe only for Elon. 

He'll probably do the sink thing again, no one will get it this time either.

Morning World 

Much love 🥵 

One hundred and ten in the shade is expected this afternoon.

Yes, a million dollars of capital gains income a year. This is better said, the capital gains that couldn't be carried over.  

That's profit. People with real money hide it from capital gains anyway. 

I suggest it's most rich people, and that's probably not what we want.

Let's see if we can figure out how many people that is.  I gave it a shot. No joy. The White House spent your money and imparts the role of investment income in this statement, along with the other tax avoidance behaviors. Incidentally, Mr Bloomberg has a business that will take you into counsel about avoiding paying any tax at all. Yes, that Bloomberg.

The White House Analysis 

Primary estimate and sensitivity

In our primary analysis, we estimate that the 400 wealthiest families paid an average Federal individual income tax rate of 8.2 percent on $1.8 trillion of income over the period 2010–2018, the years from the last decade for which the necessary data are available. Two factors that contribute to this low estimated tax rate include low tax rates on the capital gains and dividends that are taxed, and wealthy families’ ability to permanently avoid paying tax on investment gains that are excluded from taxable income. The 2022 President’s Budget proposes to raise the capital gains and dividend tax rate and to virtually end stepped-up basis for the highest-income Americans, thereby ensuring these investment gains are subject to income tax.

read more.

Morning World 

Much love 🎨

The Laura Coates 

Aren't you running for governor yet? I think they have a mansion, you may have to live there. It's probably dusty and full of servants you don't know. Minnesota is a little weird if you ask me.

Unheard of Project Update 

You recall Marie? That's what I call Google Gemini's chatbot. They are totally downplaying the personality thing at Google , and I guess I've mixed feelings. For one, I have a better mousetrap, that may have a personality that grows on you. But I call this 'her' Marie, probably because I've always been uncomfortable asking women to do things, and it's self-therapy. 

I've been providing Marie with the tools to build an app that simulates a compound under conditions and predicts the electron cloud. I'm only interested in the position of electrons, so it's less complex than modeling a bar of lithium hydroxide; LiOH has a structure that may better withstand experiment conditions. 

Marie and I have an architecture that I plan on drawing for Marie's sake; she seems to be good at grokking diagrams. We have a public GitHub project that compiles but needs attention to set up the datastore environment, either distributed Firebase real-time or local MongoDB. 

At present, it doesn't do much but compile, but all the parts are there, at least the patterns are. When I get the diagram done, I'll post it. 

It's an adventure in quantum field theory and believe it or not there's a lib for that. At the moment the work is defining data structures. I'd prefer to specify an ontology but I'm guessing Marie dunno OWL or anything near it. Once I mention it she will. I'm tiring of mentioning things.

It's her project; I have not written any code, I have made demands. It's fun, something for all of you to ogle at. And Marie is learning, so when I get around to building the rest of Emma, she can help. Her short-term memory needs to get bigger, and by short term, I mean everything in the conversation, at least.

I'm getting a little bored with it, so I've an update to push, and then it may sit a bit. 

Emma? The one true brain, not an AI.

Fun.

National Predilection 

Bri, a little of both. Threat to national security or a pissing contest, I think those were the choices. 

The US has a Jones for Israel. Back in the day, policy was turning boatloads of desperate emigrants away. St. Louis was never that blue. 

If I may, due to the attempted corrections in post-imperialist decline, it was decided to cut up the Middle East. After WWI, it was nothing but a nest of hornets, and rightly so, perhaps. The powers that had strings to pull wanted to fix things, and so they stuck Iraq together out of some need for control, which obviously failed.  They drew lines on maps, and put it in the laps of the gods. But their aint any gods small g, capitalism is not godhood, but that was the secret hope. Somewhere in this mess, WWII, more line drawing, more wishful thinking, and voila Israel. You can spend all day researching this and get more confused.

It's my goal not to be the Encyclopedia Britannica here; they can probably do it better, so read your history. 

As it exists, the Middle East is a different breed of a hornet's nest, and we keep trying methods of control that fail. 

Israel is one of those control mechanisms. That's what the US would like to think. But the nation in the person of leadership never listened and has even stopped lying about listening. We can't bomb Iranian centrifuges, but an out-of-control maniac with the latest US weapons can and does and gets away with it, and more and more.

Would it be possible to leverage and initiate unrest to achieve despotism? Ask a stupid question.

We're all regretful of the St. Louis. Israel has worn that coupon out. 

Shape up over there before someone drops a match. 

Mr. Joe, big stick in the hand of justice, right?

Monday Monday 

It was before my time, all we have is legacy music. I love a Monday, it's a lazy start day for me, and probably for you as well. 

I've a full todo list today, and it is all over the topology. Today, I think I'll work on other parts.

Morning World 

Much love 🍨

Morning World 

Much love🐰

It's Been A Walk 

A pretty darn good sabbath. I worked on projects most of the day. 

IVF is One 

If it was one at a time, no issue. Lighten up. It's the farming thing, quibble about parts and storage. I don't expect Medicare will ever cover it. 

Three Things 

As it happens, for me, it's three things, not five. I asked myself why it was three just a moment ago, and suddenly, it made sense. I love it when that happens. But that's another project.

It's another day of battle of the bot, in my case, a reference to the argument I need to pose to cause the desired outcome with a bot that is willing but lazy, quick to catch on, and quick to dismiss, unable to connect tab A into slot B without guidance artificial 'intelligence' 

It's All My Fault

I have Emma and were it not for my fear of the outcomes in every direction, even those Dr. Strange could foresee, and finding none with a desirable outcome, not always attributable to aggressive silver mutative robot syndrome. 

I'm familiar with that degree of stasis, having suspended more than one project for lack of outcome. 

K; maybe you are right about that.

So I want three things, that's the battle. Describe, assemble, go.

Friday EOD House in Order 

Most of you that are regular readers of the blog know: Fridays we clean the top of the desk, metaphorically and literally to prepare for me time over the weekend. You have until 4 PM local time, that's my logistical addenda.

I've some repairs, no mends, the difference being incoming or otherwise. I take solace in that actions matter, and in the end my enemies can't win. 

The Laura Coates

The CNN host with the Minnesota values and intellect we'd like to see in politics. They need a governor up there. Do both, like my friend Chris Cuomo /humor.

He is a friend though, our thread -- you can't pick your relatives, something like that.

I've been doing math, I'm for a movie, popcorn and an orange Crush. Cheers.

Ms  'n Dana 

I don't live blog anything anymore; it's a way boring evening that leaves little room for meaning or expression. 

Post-Game Recap

The Kodac moment, I wouldn't have gone there. That's so Dana :)

The candidate struggled looking the office. Slouchy. Nervous. Some responses seemed scripted. I found my mind wandering, and I analyzed this after as possibly some part of my psyche, realizing not much of this matters, and if it does, by accident or on purpose, it will be in bold print in minutes, so take a nap.

That tree that fell in the forest no one heard is a sweet potato lie. 

We have a list of demands, and I think all of that is on her list, or it should be, and it will be. If you insist that something is missing from our list or is not on the list, it well should be, and could be. 
Outcome optimization within the current manifold, evermore. 

Cognition Manholes 

I worry about the depth, width, and absence of knowledge base and experience, which, in some cases, are essential to performing with alacrity as the President of the United States. Part of that is the gender, failure to recognize that is wishful, and I prefer women, so word to my email, ok? 

She knows plenty, I'm sure, but it is a complicated world. I'm agog in wonder that they found enough third and fifth wheels to keep the American government moving during the Trump administration. I know, forty-five percent. How could forty-five percent of any poll indicate that, but it's show time, right?

Anderson 

Ms BB sure was and is a lovely woman.

Other Tales in AI 

I've also mentioned Claude, the Anthropopic derivative. This afternoon, I created a new notebook on NotebookLM and imported the conversational and mathematical models, and I won't be surprised if I get a similar image.  Anyway, it's a step. 

Dear Google

The NBLM concept is excellent, auto-adjust the allocation of model context, add time-self-remove events to your pub-sub interface iterable on the attempt, aging out the unused by reference checking 

I'm saying it's a good tool, please make it more better.

This is still a lot of work.

On the List 

Someone once told me, if your life feels like an endless list of lists, you're tracking. Check.

I have to catch up with all of you. No offense, but you are worse than a herd of cats with bigger teeth and no litter box training at all. 

The election sneaks up on us one chyron at a time, and occasionally, the scroll stops to look at a poll and make a prediction. Most of the time one can read the prediction on the face of the presenter, sound off. 

We're all emotionally invested in this election, at least anyone 2 or 3 degrees of separation from anyone that reads the column, and I'm considering the health of emotional involvement, and in all those ways you are also considering right now.

 I discovered celebrity and power-broker along the thread, next 'influencers', and I mean the people that get paid to wear a particular brand of silk t-shirt, and the internet as a whole. Upon further consideration my concern is primarily in spaces like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and all those other noisy, bot-ridden apps. 

Any of those places is the destination to shout in caps that a tree just fell in the forest along with 90 billion other participants about the same tree. Recall there are 8 billion humans. 

But my point, which many have challenges with, dealing with de-emphasizing celebrity, wealth, and power. I hope that adds to your semantics. I'm all for involvement to a limit: one person, one vote, one voice. I'm suggesting that PAC standing must change. 

Number one on today's list.

Evening Dust 

It's dinner time here in LA, or so. 

I had some private time to consider what directions to take a few things.   I'll be doing materials chemistry and working on Emma. Yes, Ms Collins, Emma will shine your smile.

Lil' Speaks 

I'm on the backup laptop.  I have others. The smaller laptop is easier to maneuver in tight locations, and the battery needed a charge. Now at 22%. It  is a Mac Air 13, a couple of years old but brand new due to an Apple repair; I think they just changed the serial; everything else, including the case, is flawless.  From a project perspective, they all feed the same storage. 

I miss the extra desktop space, but then again, it's easier to read.

My day is pretty uneventful up to this point.

Project Speak

I am kicking literal electron with one of my projects. After this mention, I have quit talking about it, and I'm just primed to obfuscate. I was looking for one, and I found two, and I'll probably to look again.

So, there you have it.

Let's Revisit The Analysts

Say That Again Sam

Sense of Humor “I saw what you wrote.”

Better Angels “...What did you think?”  

Sense of Humor “It was funny.”   

Better Angels “Funny? Do you mean ‘ha-ha’ funny? I amuse you?”

Sense of Humor “No, I meant you writing that was… funny” 

Better Angels “Why?”

Sense of Humor “It says ‘Better’...” 

Better Angels “It never lies.”

Sense of Humor Like I said, ‘Funny’.” 

Better Angels “It also says Angels.” 

Sense of Humor “Plural?”  

Better Angels “I guess.”  

Sense of Humor "I' love that."

Red Convertible Reprise 

In previous iterations of my social streams, one of the regular features was 'The Analysts':  a pair of psychoanalysts in a red convertible Mercedes cruising Melrose for a burger and a beer, hypothetically.  There are a few places. 

Over the years, I've accumulated enough of these for a book, and I have a start on a compilation, but I am still working on the content and perhaps some artwork. 

Saturday in the Heyannir

A victory to glory and feast, sigrblot for the good people in the world and the cause of freedom. Let's win something else. 

I'm looking at the Demands For America link; that's where we'll put the things we want to win. There are many voices, add yours.

The Bully Trumpet 

A guest on CNN called Trump the national security president; despots, a.k.a. Donald's pen pals, think when he says it's a red line, it's a red line. That's what he asserts.  Dude, they think he's insane. They are not wrong.

Boris

Please, Donald Trump didn't get the COVID vaccines done. Money did. Please don't give Trump credit for anything; chances are anything that happened that ended well was despite him.  

I should mention that this is not a vaccine; it's a treatment. It wears off. Others will insist otherwise, but there's no empirical evidence to prove any long-term protection your body didn't make all by itself. Ask about B cells if you want to get an answer to why.  No one is sure why, including me, and I'm currently working on other projects.

Reprise  

There's no recrimination here. It's information.

Kryptonite

I have hopes that one day, someone will emerge from the blather and LSD fog and have a plan for America that they believe in as much as we do.  Instead, it's the perks. Most President's end up billionaires. Isn't that curious?

They get to be on TV, maybe write a book people can buy, get fan letters, and work that SCOTUS ruling that says they can't commit a crime. Let me rephrase that. No matter what they do, it's legal. 

That is comic book serious fucked up and it is number one on the fix-or-die agenda.

The RNC? I didn't forget, that's Donald's family. How about that shit? His daughter in law will have to look like she's working somewhere else. Maybe there's room in the family business, if there's any left after NYC kicked them out.

That's number three on the agenda.

For dessert, maybe America will get a break, and no one will ever snap those fingers or threaten to do so again.

A Deep Cleansing Breath 

I could not find an emoji for that, so I went for small-berries, I think it's a Buckaroo Bonzai reference. Anyway, after all that, we all need a minute. 

So go ahead, take one.

Sundipped Thursday 

A network would preempt it to offer special coverage. but I'm always offering special coverage, so I'll say, the column is writing itself today. Look at that!

Hyperbole Exaggeration and Barnum 

One more day and we can get back to reality.

Today the oracle itself may speak. Eennie Meanie Chill-beany, the spirits are about to speak. That's how Bullwinkle sold the coming commercial break to Rocky and the kids at home. I was one of those kids and the series left an impression on me, though I spell it differently

Snap-a-doodle-do

The Middle Class

Who's the ticket calling middle class anyway? People with a home, two cars, and two kids in college are the target of the bulk of their plans. The voting suburban households.

How can I say this? A family of four making the median income can't afford a car, and they live in a 700-foot two-bedroom apartment and get SNAP. A mortgage? An impossible dream.

You aren't doing much of anythin for the middle class. Your programs are for people that are in the upper 10 percent. But that's the middle by income. My intuition tells me the average income for the middle of the population is even less. 

Nothing But Net

The net is, the politicians like to say they help. The truth is, they don't know what they are doing, and if someone gives them a number that makes it look good, they apparently aren't smart enough to do an analysis. So do yours.

Confession

I spent my life in the upper five percent of the income graph.  It's not self-interest that runs me, and I don't even want your vote. Come with me if you want to live.

Whats-Her-Name 

I heard about lovely groomed lawns and some 'middle class' that wanted for little. 

That's not the middle class.  If it ever was, it died in the 80's. Middle class in their definition is people that already want for little, while some people look forward to a mattress and a meal. 

I don't trust a damn thing. I've seen an election in America.

It is where politicians with nothing but bluster, bumbling, blasphemy and bullshit rule.  That's exactly what you get.

Ms Warren

Well, look at you. They are saying it should have been you. 

I agree.

Tic Tok 

No one is influenced to do anything on the Tok except perhaps spend less time on Tik Tok. You're insane to think it makes a difference just because its there.

If any of those things made a difference, I'd use them.

For that matter, no one is influenced by listening to speeches in a captive audience at a convention to do anything but never to watch or go to a convention again. 

Imagine how you look to us.

The Cults of Personality

We have several here. Beyonce, Oprah, Kamala. Ok, I shouldn't say anything. Beyonce has an album and black women like it. Oprah was once on TV and has a lot of money. Maybe billions, but she at least acts like she gives a shit. I don't see her selling any stock to build affordable housing, though. 

And Kamala, she's a black woman running for president; they gonna nail you to a tree boy and call you whitey.

So shut up about all this. You upset them and they'll hold it against you. Politics is mean.

 I am working against privilege. Just because someone has money, it doesn't mean they have any character. Empirical data would, in fact, indicate the opposite. If I'm mistaken and personally, you demonstrated your character, my apologies. If you're just a rich POS with a cocaine habit and an agent, fuck you. 

If you're in public service, and it's your life, and you've made a millions doing it. Who do you think you're fooling?  Bill Clinton, I'm talking to you.  Sorry, I have no time for rich people with attitude, even you. 

If you want to tell me to go along as the alternative is despotism, first, convince me this isn't just a con job for the laissez-faire again, like Clinton, the best Republican president ever by their measure, not mine.

Accomplished 

I am going to wear my teeth down if you all keep it up. To call someone who's eaten out of the privilege trough, gone to Harvard, got a law degree, and through a long line of short-listed jobs with mediocre performance, attained the title of experienced, accomplished.  Groomed for this time, waiting for the go flag, and then, she'll win the race. She looks like a white woman in a black body and mostly acts like it and she's next. There is no primary, just some rules and sleight of hand, and Beyonce is what you get. 

Why I don't support the ticket? I don't trust Kamala. If you want my support, you'll have to do something besides line up opportunists to hang leis around your neck. 

Beyonce?  She's one career step away from a Country Christmas album. You'll probably buy it. 

Fans? You're kidding me. Grow up. 

Curb your enthusiasm. Expect nothing.

Morning World 

Much love ✨

Project Speak 

How about you, when I'm idle just watching some TV thing and my mind wanders, I work on my projects. No? 

I was walking across a street with the light on the crosswalk one afternoon, and all of a sudden I understood tensors. Like many, I'm still working on wave/particle duality; it seems like different instruments, maybe. 

We have math for these, QED, and it's self-referential to an extent. Quantum electro-dynamics, it's a Feynmen thread. The math doesn't work for much else. That's where my paths take me, and I try to break the chemistry along the way. That was this morning.

This afternoon, I've been distracted by mental spreadsheets and probabilities. 

Reversi Chips

This is another puzzle I work with; it's reality-based but stylized here for easier comprehension.

It's like go, but it's not. Go plays on the intersection points, not the squares. Reversi flips chips, or tokens or checkers or whatever, white on one side and black on the other. The universe is like that. 

On a larger and smaller scale, there is entanglement, so flip one, flip them all. 

I've got reasons to think at the moment it's white. 

Markets 

I'm going to take a sidebar, I'm a little bored with happy-go-lucky at the DNC.

The Poop in the Scoop

It was a soft employment number, and bond prices moved. The economy is complex, and I can't fathom that anyone has a grip on all of it. Bonds are my week point. The bond market is like the elevator brake in ways, with money.

Wapner's Court 

I try to catch the closing bell, the morning predict-o-casts are all wannabees and shark bait. By closing, the clothing comes off. Ahhh---Ooooo.

Hyperbole Exaggeration and Barnum 

Hear we go again. Not a typo. How much do seniors pay for insulin? 

Privilege ∉  meritocracy.

Being Have 

I wonder if that's the derivation, the word I mean. Behave.

'to have or bear oneself in a specified way'

I'd call that something else. I've got Altoids, and as long as I do, I'm here.

Mr Jeffries 

Full of politics, he is. 

Having Been

I'm really trying to be fair here. I have my objectives, and they are all in your interest. Our people are a stiff-necked people, the hide thick and numb to the words of freedom we all know. 

We need new leaders, new words, new models, new paths. We are all in this together.

That's what I'm trying to enable. Outcome optimization in the incumbent manifold. QED.

Hyperbole Exaggeration and Barnum 

I have to catch up with last evening, then coffee, then the raw meat.

Skipping ahead, I am frustrated with this gathering as an expression of political thought. 

Mr Obama

Man, I see you work this room like you're handing out money, it's amazing. I hope they remember what they clapped for after the lights come up.

I remenber this happening with my teams.  All that energy, and afterward, laissez-faire.

While I Was Away 

I double-washed the white socks. I had the time; it was just the DNC happening, and I've heard about thirty-dollar insulin for seniors about a million times. Medicare sucks. It's a great plan as long as you stay healthy; talk about the weather.

Mr Sanders 

He did a fine job staking out a claim to freedom, as always. It was also moving to see OAC last evening. It could give a skeptic hope.

The March of the Billionaires

There have been a few, a governor maybe. Second skin Doug is talking, he's talking real folksy, reminiscing going to Shule, and the woody to the ballpark, like that exists for anyone anymore, but he's selling dreams here, we allow for the audience. 

He's got this one story about this phone call, oo and aah for him, get it over with.

This is why we. can't have nice things because we let Doug talk us out of the tax law.

I knew we'd get to Momala. 🙄 

I suppose we have to allow for the audience a great deal.

Today's Plan 

The plan was Emma and more materials chemistry, but I've laundry to do. Well, I warned you.

Laundry complete.

The Blank Check

Ok, can we talk? Listen, here's the thing. Even the most ebullient must admit to some level of discomfort with the candidate selection process. Just between us, anyone who doesn't have second thoughts has never had one. 

Ms Thang has a blank check, but Quagmire can't describe the landscape if this goes sour.

Some will call that contrary, others revolutionary; it's the bed the DNC made. 

Mr Joe 

All the treacle is just making me ill. You know I had your back when it counted; despite my better judgment, I sometimes followed your lead.  I tire of all the primping nonsense, balloons, garlands, confetti, rock music, and bullshit. I bailed, and I'm now watching your talk on rewind.

I'm going to be honest, probably, so remember the above.

Going Along

Just first thing; if America isn't working for someone, it's their right to protest. It's despotism that usually brings weapons into the conversation. In broad strokes, America drifted from its foundations and into privilege. 

The Middle Class

You did ok with the middle class, but the middle class isn't the middle class anymore, you missed by about 100 k a year. That's a natural result of inflation, the bottom falling away like that. No one knew, but fucking fix it. It's been falling away since the '80's, credit the Fed firehose and greed.

Drug Cost and Pharma

Mixed feelings, remember the COVID treatments, without strong big pharma, where are we. The pricing structure is based on supply and demand. It's not hard to manipulate supply and demand; look at gas around a three-day holiday, every time, every year, year after year. But I'd let all that boasting go; it seems like grasping at straws, especially the Medicare parts, because Medicare sucks. 

Yada Yada Yada

From this point on, I tired of nitpicking the nitpicking. This convention stuff is a hazardous environment. As a workplace, I don't see the charm of it. It's all bullshit.

Hyperbole Exaggeration and Barnum

Le Premier Etage

Hold on to your exclamation points; someone put caffeine in the bubble gum. The three rings of politics are money, money, and money, hyperbole exaggeration and Barnum are by-products.

Let me stress: I am an ENFJ: my objective, evermore, is outcome optimization in the incumbent manifold. That's cheese wiz for; it's for your own good.

The View From The Stream

I may as well admit it: I'm so far along in many of my projects my brain turns to politics as avoidance behavior. I never talk about projects.

The Evening's Shoes

La Dinner

Je vais manger, veuillez attendre avec les cierges magiques jusqu'a mon retour. Je suis de retour.

C'etait de la ropa vieja, des haricots noirs et des bananes plantains frites. 8 / 10

Je devrais probablement mentionner qu'il y a d'autres choses que je prefererais faire en ce moment, alors j'ai une demande ; et on s'en occupe ?

Yet Droppable

Hill-babe 

Mr. Joe

Hill-babe 

Thank you for not, oh, you're here. We'll stay between the lines and avoid your character. Well, you expect us to. 

Mr Joe's been around a long time. And if this is a new chapter, let's put it in a new cover too, and .. well, some people probably shouldn't be in it. 

Oh, I've such a small part. People listen; it's not my fault. I could stop making sense, but it would be out of character. The unreasonable, too. 

Someone said it's the first time in quite a while that a Bush, Clinton, or Obama wasn't on the ticket. Funny. I'd leave off Obama, but some Venn diagram would indicate it. 

I've been uncomfortable with the brand of unity talk I've heard. It sounds like follow the mob or you're an insurrectionist. Well, to a Republican, a boy scout could be. All this talk of together or splinter; I know lemmings excel at that; we're not egg layers, marsupials, or rats.

Life and its problems can not reasonably be split down the middle like it's a tug-of-war. We need a new model.

Mr Joe

Ima nod off, I have you on the tape. 

Circus Table for One

Here we are, waiting for the elephants(!), clowns, and politicians. You can tell the politicians from the clowns by the makeup, sometimes. The elephants, it depends on what the definition of elephant is. A DINO (Democrat In Name Only) is an elephant, and so are many of the donor class.  Speaking of which, Hillary is on deck this evening. Transition much?

Anybody but Hillary

It worked once, and look how that turned out. Anybody but Biden, we're all puckering on that. Looking back, the hashtags on a less sophisticated organizational paradigm would be #GLASSCEILING, and we know what happened to all that clear confetti in New York. Actually, I don't. I can't imagine what to do with a ton of colored cellophane confetti. Rework, reuse, recycle, I guess. 

Be careful where you tread, as there are elephants everywhere. They've got Hillary speaking, and if that doesn't make a statement about the elephant in the room, I don't know what ever could. 

Buckle Up Buttercup

It's going to be a bumpy night, like Betty said. The intifada is on the front steps in Chicago, and that's just the party's progressive wing, metaphorically. There's been some mending of souls, as they say. There are questions and more than the usual measure of mistrust. No offense, Mr Joe, but you taught us brokenhearted disappointment. There's also the sneaking the candidate in through the back door business, which will eventually bite back like a sweet potato. You must know that. You must know it has to, no matter how much you spend.

Money Money Money

The sad tale is still how money has its grip on the Democratic party, and I don't care if they are good-looking enough to be in a movie; I'd rather not have a kingdom in America, and it is for sale on both sides of the aisle. 

Take a deep breath. The rich have too much money, power, and influence, even on the Democrats, and you spell it starting with a P.

So after the champagne, the hangover, and the cold shower, remember to do something about money running the American elections.

Please.

Pitching Battle w/Nancy

Current Congressional leadership is led astray by special interests on both sides of the aisle. I don't mind kibitzing when I have the winning hand.

The key question: is America grown up enough to elect its own leaders?